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Breaking News: El-Rufai Predicts Tinubu Will Come 3rd in 2027 Presidential Election
DocuNews Central — September 1, 2025
The Nigerian political space has been thrown into fresh controversy after former Kaduna State Governor, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, made one of the boldest predictions of the election season so far. Speaking during an interview on Channels Television, El-Rufai declared with confidence that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu will not make it to the runoff in 2027, insisting that the current President will finish in third place.
His words have ignited heated debates, with some hailing his political foresight while others dismiss his analysis as an act of betrayal.
El-Rufai Drops a Political Bombshell
Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, well known for his blunt speech and controversial political style, did not mince words during the interview. He revealed that he had carefully studied the numbers, looked at regional dynamics, and carried out what he called “political mathematics.”
According to him:
“I have done my maths. Bola Tinubu will not be on the ballot when the runoff is declared. He will come third. At best, he has no pathway to victory in 2027.”
For many Nigerians, this was a shocking statement. Not only did it openly question the chances of an incumbent president, but it also came from a man who was once a loyal member of the APC and a powerful figure in northern politics.
The Runoff Debate and Why It Matters
Under Nigeria’s electoral laws, to win the presidency outright, a candidate must not only secure a majority of the votes cast but also at least 25 percent of votes in two-thirds of the states.
If no candidate achieves this, a runoff election is conducted between the top two candidates.
El-Rufai’s prediction, therefore, carries weight: by saying Tinubu will come third, he is suggesting that the APC will be completely excluded from the final showdown in 2027. Such an outcome would mark a dramatic shift in Nigerian politics, possibly ending the dominance of the ruling party that has held power since 2015.
The Jonathan Parallel: Power Cannot Save an Incumbent
To drive home his point, El-Rufai recalled the 2015 General Election, in which then-incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan lost to Muhammadu Buhari.
He said:
“Jonathan had the Army, the Police, INEC, yet he lost in 2015. That same thing will happen to Tinubu in 2027. Nigerians decide their future at the polls, not the people in power.”
This statement underscores a crucial lesson in Nigeria’s democracy: state power does not always guarantee electoral victory. Jonathan’s concession in 2015 shocked the world and became a historic turning point. El-Rufai’s message is clear — Tinubu could face the same fate.
Why El-Rufai Believes Tinubu Will Fail
Political watchers have tried to unpack El-Rufai’s reasoning. From his statements, several key points stand out:
Rising Discontent: Widespread complaints about hardship, inflation, and insecurity may hurt Tinubu’s chances of winning popular support.
Regional Politics: The North, which played a decisive role in Buhari’s victories, appears divided. El-Rufai suggests Tinubu cannot secure the same northern backing.
Party Fractures: The APC itself is not as united as it once was. Disagreements and defections could weaken the ruling party before 2027.
Opposition Strength: Unlike in 2019, opposition parties seem determined to form stronger alliances ahead of 2027, making Tinubu’s path even narrower.
Reactions From Across Nigeria
El-Rufai’s words have triggered diverse reactions:
APC loyalists have dismissed him as bitter and politically irrelevant, accusing him of betraying the party that made him governor.
Opposition figures welcomed his remarks, saying it reflects what many Nigerians already believe — that Tinubu’s administration has failed to meet expectations.
Political analysts argue that El-Rufai’s statement will put pressure on the ruling party to rethink its strategy for 2027. Some even suspect he may be positioning himself for a future role in opposition politics.
Social media platforms also exploded with reactions, with hashtags like #ElRufaiPrediction and #Tinubu2027 trending across X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook.
The Historical Weight of 2015
The 2015 elections remain one of the most important in Nigeria’s democratic history. Goodluck Jonathan, despite controlling state power, accepted defeat and peacefully handed over to Buhari.
That moment reassured Nigerians and the international community that democracy was maturing in Africa’s largest nation.
El-Rufai’s prediction suggests that history may repeat itself — with another incumbent president humbled at the ballot box by the will of the people.
Could This Be Political Strategy?
Some analysts believe El-Rufai’s comments are not just predictions but also part of a calculated political move.
By openly declaring that Tinubu has “no pathway to victory,” he may be sending a signal to opposition groups that he is ready to work with them, or even carve out a new political alignment ahead of 2027.
It would not be the first time El-Rufai has switched positions or challenged powerful leaders within his own party. His history in Nigerian politics is filled with bold moves and calculated risks.
The Bigger Picture: Nigeria’s Future at Stake
Regardless of whether El-Rufai is right or wrong, one fact remains: the 2027 election is already shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable contests in Nigeria’s history.
The stakes are high. The economy is struggling, security challenges persist, and Nigerians are demanding real change. Whoever wins in 2027 will not just inherit power — they will inherit a nation in desperate need of solutions.
Final Takeaway
El-Rufai’s prediction that Tinubu will come third in 2027 is more than just political gossip. It is a challenge to the ruling APC, a warning to incumbents who think power guarantees victory, and a reminder that the people of Nigeria ultimately hold the key to their country’s future.
For now, Nigerians are watching closely. Will El-Rufai’s words come true, or will Tinubu prove him wrong? Time — and the ballot box — will tell.
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